Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 1 March 2016

Commodity prices rise in February

Rare gains

Not something that has been said too often since commodity prices peaked in July 2011, but the Reserve Bank's Index of Commodity Prices increased by +1.2 per cent in February, driven by the respective prices of iron ore and gold. 

When using spot prices in place of export prices for the bulk commodities, the index is up more significantly by +2.9 per cent. 

In Aussie dollar terms the Index of Commodity Prices has increased by +2.9 per cent over the past two months. 

It's worth noting that using spot prices the index is up more strongly by +6.9 per cent in 2016 to date, with the bulk commodities index using spot prices rebounding by +11.4 per cent after some gigantic declines previously.

Looking at the the index weights below, if the gains are to continue in March hopes will likely be pinned upon the price of oil, gas, iron ore and gold, in particular. 

Iron ore futures hit their upside limit today, but you'd be a brave soul to bet heavily against the downtrend.


National Accounts and GDP tomorrow! NAB thinks we'll see +2.7 per cent growth in the economy for 2015. I'll take the low side of that bet.

Futures markets are seeing two interest rate cuts this year, which will likely drag a few more savers kicking and screaming into the risk assets.