Pete Wargent blogspot


'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Sunday, 27 March 2016

Adelaide unemployment rate hits 8 (eight) per cent

Adelaide unemployment hits 8 per cent

Worrying news for Adelaide as the unemployment rate hit 8 per cent in February according to the Detailed Labour Force figures for February 2016.

The monthly data are volatile and so here I plot them on a 12mMA basis, showing Greater Adelaide at 7.43 per cent and rising hard.

It's great to see that low interest rates are biting in the three largest capital cities.

Sydney is the best placed capital city on this metric, inching down to 5.04 per cent from 5.2 per cent one year ago, while Melbourne is also in a tidy 14 month downtrend.

Brisbane is in a beautiful freefall with the 12mMA unemployment rate fall dropping from 6.29 per cent to 5.74 per cent over the past fifteen months.

The uptrend in Perth is still intact, but only just, ticking up only very marginally to 5.99 per cent over the past four months.

Adelaide, on the other hand, is a problem child.

I warned on this blog a few years back that with employment growth stalling completely in Adelaide, sooner or later the unemployment rate would hit uncomfortable levels or population growth could even go backwards.

That hasn't quite happened yet, but interstate migration from South Australia has now hit negative 4,100 per annum, a level last seen in the financial crisis.

The uptrend in the Adelaide unemployment rate has been in place for fully 48 months now, with the shutdown of the General Motors Holden plant also looming large in 2017, a devastating blow for the working suburb of Elizabeth.