Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Thursday, 18 February 2016

Will interest rates fall again?

Cut the rates!

On balance, more likely than not say the markets. 

There has been some volatility across global markets in recent weeks. 

Despite this, implied yields on cash rate futures haven't shifted all that much, continuing to price another interest rate cut by the third quarter of calendar year 2016. 


Goldman Sachs sees two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points (bps) each by July, the reasons for which are well explained by Greg at Business Insider here

These reasons include a likely low inflation reading for H1 2016, a healthy scepticism over the strength of employment growth, and a fresh round of central bank easing. 

While banks have been fairly consistently churning out record earnings through this reporting season, their investor presentations have been loaded with rhetoric hinting at rising funding costs and pressure on net interest margins.

Meaning? If and when interest rates are cut again, expect the banks and major lenders to keep hold of at least 10bps for themselves, passing on only 15bps or less to borrowers.