Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Huge fan of your work. Very impressive!' - Scott Pape, The Barefoot Investor, Australia's #1 bestseller.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years yet still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the finest young commentators' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts...most comprehensive analyst I follow in Oz' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

Thursday, 18 February 2016

Will interest rates fall again?

Cut the rates!

On balance, more likely than not say the markets. 

There has been some volatility across global markets in recent weeks. 

Despite this, implied yields on cash rate futures haven't shifted all that much, continuing to price another interest rate cut by the third quarter of calendar year 2016. 


Goldman Sachs sees two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points (bps) each by July, the reasons for which are well explained by Greg at Business Insider here

These reasons include a likely low inflation reading for H1 2016, a healthy scepticism over the strength of employment growth, and a fresh round of central bank easing. 

While banks have been fairly consistently churning out record earnings through this reporting season, their investor presentations have been loaded with rhetoric hinting at rising funding costs and pressure on net interest margins.

Meaning? If and when interest rates are cut again, expect the banks and major lenders to keep hold of at least 10bps for themselves, passing on only 15bps or less to borrowers.