Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Monday, 1 February 2016

US growth slows sharply

US growth slows sharply

If you are waiting for further interest rate hikes in the US to bring down the Aussie dollar towards 60 cents, it seems that you might be waiting a little while.

The "advance estimate" released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday showed that the US economy slowed to a crawl in the fourth quarter to an annualised pace of just 0.7 per cent.

In the third quarter real GDP grew by only 2.0 per cent. 

Soft consumer and business spending were the key inputs, with confidence down reflecting turmoil on global markets.

Charting the real GDP data in dollar terms shows how the recovery, which has now been tracking for six-and-a-half-years, appeared to lose some of its momentum towards the end of 2015, although the economy has continued to record solid employment growth.

Despite the slowdown last year real GDP grew by an estimated 2.4 per cent, around the same level of growth since in the preceding year. 

A number of commentators believe that the fourth quarter slowdown may have been a blip, and then robust growth will return next quarter.

The non-farm payrolls data, which I looked at in a little more detail here, showed that the US economy added 2.65 million jobs in 2015, helping unemployment to fall to 5 per cent.