Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Friday, 5 February 2016

Quarterly retail solid

Retail trade flat in December

An unremarkable set of Retail Trade numbers, with the focus likely to fall on the December result which was flat in seasonally adjusted terms (and up by +0.3 per cent in trend terms), comfortably missing expectations.

Over the quarter, in volume terms retail sales were up by a reasonably solid +0.6 per cent, seasonally adjusted, with moderately positive implications for Q4 GDP. 

In chain volume measures terms, the final quarter of 2015 was certainly a weak one for Western Australia (-0.8 per cent).

Looking at annual retail turnover growth, nationally the rate of growth ticked back to +4.2 per cent, but this remains quite some way above the half decade average of +3.7 per cent.

State versus state

In terms of retail turnover (current prices), Queensland had a promising quarter recording a tidy increase of +1.45 per cent.

It was not such a pretty picture in Western Australia, however, where retail turnover declined by -0.6 per cent over the quarter, while Tasmania's mini-boom in retail may now be flatlining. 

Industry groups

Over the past year much of the growth in retail has been seen in the household goods sector, reflecting the obvious strength of the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, but this may now be rolling over.

Clothing and food retailing had a decent month, but elsewhere the results at the end of Q4 clearly weren't quite so hot. In Q4 even the ever-popular cafes, restaurants and takeaways sector (aka. the "dining boom") recorded lacklustre results.

The wrap

Overall this was a disappointing result for December, but the figures were passable for the final quarter of the year. Some storm clouds on the horizon in Western Australia, perhaps?