Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Bounce, c'mon bounce (22 month high)

Turnbull bounce continues

Roy Morgan Research released its weekly consumer confidence figures which showed that the so-termed "Turnbull bounce" is coming to fruition.

Consumer confidence rose again by another +1.2 per cent or +1.4 points for a reading 116.6, which is now a 22 month high and well above the long run average since 1990. 

The sub-index concerning the economic outlook for the next five years leapt by +7.5 per cent, while the sub-index for the next year's outlook was also up by +2.8 per cent.

According to Roy Morgan Research both of these sub-indices have jumed by +23 per cent since 8 weeks ago, a substantial turnaround.

While surveys can be a little volatile the result was mirrored by Westpac's consumer sentiment survey jumped by 3.9 per cent in November to well above 100 (101.7), also its highest result since January 2014 and 8.3 per cent higher than in September.

Westpac reported that Christmas spending plans showed their most encouraging result since this has question been included in the survey, a sign that low interest rates have eased the financial burden of mortgaged households.

Whether or not the boost represents a vote of confidence for Prime Minster Turnbull or a vote of no confidence in his predecessor is open to debate!

Job ads

Of course, consumer confidence can and will only remain above its long run average if consumers remain confident about their employment security, but there was also some heartening news this week from the ANZ job advertisements data series.

Job ads increased by a seasonally adjusted +0.4 per cent in October following a strong +3.8 per cent gain in September.

It's been a long, drawn out recovery, no doubt, but the trend estimate has now been rising steadily for 24 months, which bodes reasonably well for future employment growth, with ANZ considering that the unemployment rate may decline over the near term.

The Labour Force data will be released on Thursday morning (see my review of last month's report here).