Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest property analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

"I've been investing 40 years yet I still learned new concepts; one of the finest young commentators" - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia...follow Pete Wargent' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

'Superlative work' - Grant Williams, founder RealVision.

Friday, 2 October 2015

Retail trade also follows house prices

Retail rebounds in August

Retail Trade rebounded to rise by +0.4 per cent to a new high of $24.4 billion in August to be up by a solid +4.5 per cent over the year.

The impact of the small business tax package is visible in June with some pull forward of expenditure, including the very laptop which I'm typing this blog post on in fact.



Sydney and Melbourne lead

Through the cycle the strongest retail trade results have been seen in Sydney and Melbourne, following the dwelling price cycle.


Over the past quarter, the same holds true. There have also been solid results and percentage retail turnover gains over the year in South Australia, the ACT, Queensland, Tasmania and Western Australia, in that order.


Industry groups 

Australia's "dining boom" may finally be slowing with cafes, restaurants and takeaway expenditure now "only" up by +3.13 per cent over the past year. 

Food retail trade increased in August (+0.6 per cent) after a soft result last month, but regardless of retail volumes supermarket price wars are keeping a lid on turnover growth in that sector (+2.9 per cent over the year). 


Over the past year there has been a confirmed boom in the household goods retail (+9.1 per cent), another trend which has followed rising dwelling prices in Sydney and Melbourne. 

There has clearly also been some strength in clothing and footwear (+5.9 per cent) and department store retailing (+7.1 per cent) as the lower dollar encourages more of us to shop at home.


The wrap

Overall, a middle-of the road result for retail trade this month, with weaknesses in the Northern Territory and the ACT more than offset by gains elsewhere.

A final point for consideration - the percentage share of retail trade taken up by "dining out" over the last few decades...aka. the slothfulness index!