Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Friday, 2 October 2015

Retail trade also follows house prices

Retail rebounds in August

Retail Trade rebounded to rise by +0.4 per cent to a new high of $24.4 billion in August to be up by a solid +4.5 per cent over the year.

The impact of the small business tax package is visible in June with some pull forward of expenditure, including the very laptop which I'm typing this blog post on in fact.

Sydney and Melbourne lead

Through the cycle the strongest retail trade results have been seen in Sydney and Melbourne, following the dwelling price cycle.

Over the past quarter, the same holds true. There have also been solid results and percentage retail turnover gains over the year in South Australia, the ACT, Queensland, Tasmania and Western Australia, in that order.

Industry groups 

Australia's "dining boom" may finally be slowing with cafes, restaurants and takeaway expenditure now "only" up by +3.13 per cent over the past year. 

Food retail trade increased in August (+0.6 per cent) after a soft result last month, but regardless of retail volumes supermarket price wars are keeping a lid on turnover growth in that sector (+2.9 per cent over the year). 

Over the past year there has been a confirmed boom in the household goods retail (+9.1 per cent), another trend which has followed rising dwelling prices in Sydney and Melbourne. 

There has clearly also been some strength in clothing and footwear (+5.9 per cent) and department store retailing (+7.1 per cent) as the lower dollar encourages more of us to shop at home.

The wrap

Overall, a middle-of the road result for retail trade this month, with weaknesses in the Northern Territory and the ACT more than offset by gains elsewhere.

A final point for consideration - the percentage share of retail trade taken up by "dining out" over the last few decades...aka. the slothfulness index!