Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Thursday, 29 October 2015

Rental inflation soft

Rental growth soft

Delving into the detail behind yesterday's Consumer Price Index figures for the third quarter reveals that annual rental price growth in Australia is now tracking at its lowest level since June 1995, with rents up nationally by just +1.5 per cent over the year to September 2015.

The data series captured at the capital city level shows the cylical nature of property prices and rents.

The national level figures show the marked contrast beteween rental price inflation in periods when investors and housing starts were knocked out of the market (1985-1987) and those where investors have flooded the market with rentals and construction has boomed (2012-date).

Naturally significant variances are evident across the capital cities.

Annual rental growth remained steady in Sydney (+2.5 per cent), but was softer in Melbourne (+2.2 per cent) and Brisbane (+1.1 per cent), while Perth has now slipped into negative territory on this series (-1.6 per cent) after a big run-up through the resources boom. 

Looking at the annualised data reveals the softening trend, particularly in Perth.

In the smaller capital cities, Hobart appears likely to play host to a level of rental growth over the year ahead with vacancy rates in the Tasmanian capital having tightened sharply.

On the other hand Darwin has the opposite problem and has now sunk into negative territory, joining Canberra where annual rents have been negative since the first quarter of calendar year 2014.

Finally, a look at rental growth across 5 and 10 year time periods by capital city shows how the resources capitals enjoyed the bulk of rental growth until the end of the resources boom.

Economists are split on next Tuesday's interest rate decision, with a fair number now plumping for further easing, though economists of the 'big four' banks are yet to join that particular party.