Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Friday, 2 October 2015

Job vacancies follow house prices

Job vacancies improve

Positive news ahoy as private sector Job Vacancies increased by +8.8 per cent over the year to August, suggesting reasonable employment gains ahead.

Total private and public sector vacancies were up by +8.5 per cent over the year to 160,200.

NSW economy leads the nation

Vacancies have followed rising house prices and dwelling construction in Sydney just as they did from 2002 as the property market ripped through its preceding boom. 

Indeed, the correlation of job vacancies with housing markets is reasonably interesting. 

New South Wales (58,100) comfortably has the highest number of vacancies followed by Victoria (38,900) and Queensland (26,800).

Services industries

Job vacancies are largely concentrated in the services industries, while on the other hand the mining, construction and manufacturing sectors appear to be weak.

The year-on-year change in job vacancies by industry tells a similar story with thousands of vacancies in services and tech industries, but mining, construction and manufacturing vacancies decling.

The wrap

In terms of what this means for local economies, the outlook appears to be concerning for a number of regions as the resources construction boom finally collapses in upon itself.

It was reported this week that house prices have been hit hard in Gladstone, Mackay, and to a lesser extent Townsville, as well as mining services towns around the Bowen Basin.

It is not yet known whether BlueScope Steel will close Port Kembla on the New South Wales south coast, although the company has flagged an intention to target $200 million of savings- this could result in another 5,000 jobs being cut, thereby crippling the Illawarra economy in the process.

A closure of the port would wipe an estimated $3.3 billion from the local economy thrutsing it headlong into recession, resulting in a far bigger hit than the last round of layoffs in 2011 (the mining boom was still tearing along then to pick up some of the slack - but there will be no such luck in 2016).

Meanwhile South Australia's employment shock appears set to accelerate, with Arrium announcing yesterday that it will aim to cut a further $100 million of costs in order to improve the viability of the Whyalla steelworks.

It has been a tough time indeed for the "Iron Triangle", while the Holden closure still hangs the like proverbial sword of Damocles over the Adelaide economy.

Overall employment data over the past year has pointed towards rising regional unemployment and a dearth of employment growth. 

The largest capital cities are generally faring well by comparison.