Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Wednesday, 7 October 2015

China increasingly dominates population flows

Long term immigration slowing

The latest Overseas Arrivals & Departures figures showed rolling annual net permanent and long term migration into Australia slowing again in August to +285,990, which is the lowest figure since January 2011.

...and the monthly data shows that the downtrend remains in place.

This implies that annual population growth in Australia will continue to tick downwards to around +300,000 or +1.3 per cent, which in turn should take some pressure off the unemployment rate given the recent pace of annual employment growth (+2.0 per cent).

Record short-term arrivals

Immigration continues to slow in sympathy with the slowing economy.

The flip side to this the lower dollar has encouraged short-term arrivals to their highest level on record at 7.2 million, while short term departures also showed the first signs of their inevitable cracking declining by -0.7 per cent in the month. 

And indeed the ratio of short term departures to arrivals at 1.266 has declined all the way back to the levels we were seeing in Q4 2010, with further more to come. 

China dominates population flows

Tourism from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong has mushroomed with a total of 1.29 million visitors in the past year representing double the numbers seen only five years ago. 

At the current explosive annual rate of increase (+20 per cent) Chinese tourists will surpass our neighbouring New Zealander friends as the number one source of tourism within only a few short years. 

And the Chinese are not only comijng for holidays with August being the first time on record that more than 2,000 Chinese settlers adopted Australia as their home country in a single month.

The rolling annual total numbers of settlers from both China (18,680) and India (20,250) are breaking new highs with Asian countries now totally dominating migration into Australia as the numbers of New Zealander and British settlers tail away.

Finally, in relation to another currency-driven trend which I discussed in more detail here, total education arrivals have boomed to a record 451,000 over the past year, a huge +17 per cent year-on-year increase. 

As I noted last month here this is yet another trend which involves very significant numbers of Chinese arrivals. 

Population growth in Australia is becoming proportionately more focussed on the largest capital cities through this cycle, and the education export boom is one the key drivers of this since it overwhelmingly benefits the largest capitals.