Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Tuesday, 13 October 2015

Around the states: What's happening with property investor loans?

Around the traps...

With owner-occupier loans teeing off, a quick look around the traps at where the macroprudential measures taken by APRA to cool property investment loans are taking the most effect.

Over the past two months investor loans have slowed almost right across the board in original terms.

In New South Wales investor loans have slowed from $6.6 billion at their June peak to $5.5 billion in August, though still remaining up by +20 per cent year-on-year. 

Home loans have surged to unprecedented heights in this state which will remove the sting from the tail.

In Victoria investment loans have ticked back over the past two months from $3.7 billion to $3.1 billion, although volumes do remain +14 per cent higher than one year ago.

In Queensland investor loans are down from $1.9 billion to $1.6 billion, but on a 12mMA basis have hit their highest level since April 2008.

Partly anecdotally, some inner Brisbane property markets have been performing well of late (ex-high density).

Investor loans in South Australia have been junked from above $0.5 billion back to $391 million, and the 12mMA trendline is now heading down.

The trendline for investment loans is also now pointing south in the resources state of Western Australia.

In just two months investor loans in Tasmania have dropped like a stone. This could prove to be volatility, but the trendline has certainly turned south. 

It may be the case that with the market having been so flat in Tasmania for so long, there is insufficient equity available for investors to stump up the more stringent deposit requirements.

The ACT has also seen a very significant decline in investment loans in just two months after a decent run-up.

And while "property bust" seems to be one of the most overused terms in online media today, looking at the data tumbling out of Darwin it may well prove to be a very apt description for what Darwin is heading towards.

Nationally the mining bust is well underway, and once the Ichthys construction phase largesse winds up what follows is likely to be a sharp property correction for the Top End...or possibly worse.