Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Sunday, 2 August 2015

US economy expands at 2.3 per cent in Q2


A quick look at what's going down in the world's largest economy.

US GDP increased at a 2.3 per cent pace in the second quarter, slightly below market forecasts.

However, the first quarter - which had previously been reported as a slight contraction - was revised up to a positive result, being a 0.6 per cent increase. 

Overall, therefore, economic growth in the first half of 2015 was a little better than expected, which suggests that the Federal Reserve may finally begin hiking interest rates later this year. 

Consumer spending rose at a solid 2.9 per cent annualised pace.

On the flip side, as is the way of these things, the economic data was revised back to 2012 and the new figures showed the speed of the recovery in economic growth as being slower than had previously been reported. 

The below chart, which records real GDP in 2009 chained dollars, now suggests a shallower rate of recovery in economic growth than before. 

Jobless claims close to 43 year low

Also last week, on Thursday the US Department of Labor released its initial jobless claims data, which is a useful indicator of layoffs.

Although jobless claims rose marginally by 12,000 to 267,000 from the preceding week, this data series slightly beat forecasts and continues to hover at close to its lowest level in 43 years. 

Indeed the 255,000 claims reported in the previous week to July 18 was the lowest figure on the survey since November 1973, an extraordinary statistic.

The 4 week moving average now sits at just 274,750.

Overall then, fairly positive news.