Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
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"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
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Monday, 31 August 2015
Inner suburbs hot for-evuh
It's set to be a monester week of data releases ahead, from tomorrow in particular, but before that a quick look at the weekend auction results.
Core-Logic-RP Data reported its preliminary auction stats which showed stronger initial results than one year ago in Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth.
Sydney recorded another vigorous result of 78.1 per cent, which was stronger than the final result for last week of 76.2 per cent, but for the first time this year was below the preliminary clearance rate from one year ago at 79.9 per cent.
Sydney's incredible run which has seen house prices rising at a pace of well over 20 per cent per annum has continued right the way through until the final week before the spring selling season.
The result of 78.1 per cent this week will doubtlesss lead to some premature extrapolation, but there are a few reasons why the Sydney market probably has a bit of a way to run yet before it runs out of puff.
Firstly while auction volumes have been tracking at the highest level we have seen, total listings are still moderate, and less than those of Melbourne and even Perth.
Secondly, in the inner- and middle-ring suburbs that matter, clearance rates are still tracking at exceptionally high levels.
According to CoreLogic-RP Data the Eastern Suburbs (87.6 per cent), North Sydney & Hornsby (86.3 per cent) and the Inner West (85.1 per cent) had the strongest clearance rates, followed by Blacktown (84.6 per cent), City & Inner South (82.8 per cent) and the Northern Beaches (81.5 per cent).
Although these are only preliminary results, traditionally it is said that results above 80 per cent point towards a "boom time" property market.
And thirdly, John McGrath ignited some debate earlier this year when he claimed that Sydney's inner suburbs will be "hot forever".
While this obviously isn't set in stone, simple geometry tells you that within the inner 6km there are only 113 square kilometres of land for which there is huge demand.
Nothing is certain, of course, but personally I wouldn't bet against it.
It's precisely what has happened in prime central London over the last couple of decades.