Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Friday, 7 August 2015

Housing finance rebounds

Market expectations were once again on the money and Housing Finance rebounded in June rising by 2.8 per cent to a seasonally adjusted $32.07 billion.

The trend estimate rose slightly to a new record high of $32.15 billion.

The number of owner-occupier loans written in the month rebounded by 4.4 per cent to 52,672.

Mortgage volumes still some way lower than we have seen in previous cycles, at least partly because through this cycle so many are electing to buy investment properties instead. 

While the seasonally adjusted data makes it appear that total housing finance may be peaking, the unadjusted or original data casts some doubt on this - June saw by far the biggest month of lending on record at an unprecedented $34.7 billion.

Owner-occupier lending rose to a record $212 billion in the 2015 financial year, while investment lending has scorched the earth to rise to a stonking $154 billion.

However, we can now expect some downward pressure on investment lending as APRA pulls a few macroprudential levers to slow the pace of lending.

Unfortunately for those forecasting a Sydney market slowdown, it appears that homebuyers are now picking up the baton.

New South Wales saw a massive $6.6 billion of owner-occupier mortgage commitments written in June, which was an 8.1 per cent increase from May and by some margin the biggest month on record. 

Owner-occupier loans also increased in Queensland and Victoria in the month, but declined moderately in South Australia and Western Australia.