Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Thursday, 6 August 2015

Golden run for Sydney employment

Let's have a butcher's hook at today's all-important Labour Force data in 3 parts.

Part 1 - Employment surges (+244k y/y)

Well! A big result which smoked expectations with another 38,500 jobs added in July, sending total employment to a new high of 11,810,700. 

Great to see.

Zooming in the chart we can see that the economy has added an impressive 243,600 jobs over the past year, the best result since March 2011.

This represented a crunching rate of employment growth of 2.1 per cent - also the best result since 2011 - which has far outstripped the rate of population growth at just 1.4 per cent.

In July the total employment growth of 38,500 was driven by full time employment increasing by 12,400 and part time employment rising by 26,100.

Part 2 - State versus state

There have variously been jobs created in Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Perth over recent times.

But the really great driver of job gains over the past year has been Sydney, followed by Melbourne. 

The state level jobs data tells the story - Sydney's labour market is on fire.

Over the past year New South Wales (+118,000) and Victoria (+76,000) have accounted for 80 per cent of Australia's total employment growth.

3 - Unemployment

Despite the very strong jobs growth a big jump in the participation rate to 65.1 per cent also saw the unemployment rate rise in June, the seasonally adjusted result spiking to 6.3 per cent.

There are now more than 800,000 unemployed persons in Australia, and as I'll highlight next week from the Detailed Labour Force figures, regional unemployment in particular remains far too high for comfort.

I've finally given up completely on trying to make any sense of the utterly illogical seasonally adjusted unemployment rate figures at the state level, and henceforth will focus only on the trend.

The unemployment rate in Queensland has trended down from 6.7 per cent in September 2014 to 6.3 per cent, which has been heartening to see.

However, Western Australia is heading in the other direction with the unemployment rate having trended up to 6 per cent from a position of near full employment only a few years ago as the mining investment boom unravels.

As for South Australia...yikes.

The wrap

A few mixed messages from today's release, but overall this data just underscored what a golden period this has been for Sydney's economy, with an infrastructure and dwelling deficit being neatly converted into a building and employment boom.

I'll take a more detailed look at what's happening at the regional level next week.