Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Thursday, 27 August 2015

Delinquencies

Fitch Ratings released its latest mortgage delinquencies report for Australia Q1 2015 overnight, which showed that at a national level mortgage arrears are below their usual levels thanks to low interest rates. 

The report showed that Sydney has benefited from strong house price appreciation and low interest rates in particular. Noted Fitch:

"Sydney's mortgage performance has benefitted the most from the rise in house prices. Metropolitan regions, including those historically worst performing ones in western Sydney, have not experienced the usual deterioration in mortgage delinquency rates caused by Christmas spending."

There was of course some ordinary news in the release.

The worst performing state for delinquencies following a decade of flat house prices and high unemployment is now Tasmania at 1.33 per cent.

Mining towns such as Mt. Isa are unsurprisingly faring very badly, while Mackay is now the worst performing postcode in Australia by dollar value, with the 30 day+ delinquency rate rising to above 2 per cent. 

The mining slowdown and associated job cuts have hit non-metropolitan areas including regional Western Australia (especially Kalgoorlie, Broome), the Northern Territory, and regional Queensland (north and outback).

The worst performing postcode in terms of missed loan repayments was Budgewoi (NSW 2262) on the Central Coast of New South Wales. 

By contrast, accroding to Fitch the best performing areas were the inner suburbs of Sydney - particularly lower northern Sydney - inner Brisbane, inner Melbourne and Central Metropolitan Perth. 

No real surprises there. 

Summarised Fitch:

"On average, the delinquency rate across Australia increased 9bp to 0.99% at end-March 2015, up from 0.90% at end-September 2014. The strong house-price appreciation and lower interest rates slightly offset the negative impact of seasonal Christmas overspending, as arrears are 36bp lower than 12 months ago. "

A delinquency rate of 1 per cent - which is below the long run average - and down 36bp from one year ago  is a great result.