Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Sunday, 23 August 2015

Average weekly earnings +2 per cent

Earnings grow +2 per cent

The ABS released its Average Weekly Earnings figures for the year to May 2015 over the past week.

This follows on from the Wage Price Index figures which showed wages growing by +2.3 per cent over the past year.

The average weekly earnings figures, give an...erm, average result...and therefore tends to differ somewhat from the wage price index data.  

In the year to May 2015, trend series full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings increased by +2.0 per cent to $1,484.50.

Interestingly, average female full time ordinary time earnings (+2.6 per cent) and average female full time total earnings (+2.6 per cent) bith fared relatively well.

Howver, male full time ordinary time earnings were considerably weaker (+2.0 per cent) while average male full time total earnings also followed suit (+2.0 per cent).

Average weekly total earnings growth was some way lower again for both sexes, implying that hefty project completion bonuses are no longer the order of the day. 

What gives?

Firstly, over the past year there has been anemic growth in average earnings in the male-dominated industries of mining and construction.

Secondly this has occurred whilst the bulk of the new jobs created in the year to May 2015 were in services industry roles. 

You can find which of the industries have been adding the greatest number of positions and in which states in earlier posts on this blog. 

State versus state

The state level data presented below is not seasonally adjusted and overall is better treated as a high level indicator more than anything else, but it shows strong average full time total earnings growth in New South Wales, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, offset by declines elsewhere.

The industry level data suggests that states where mining construction has been heavily concentrated are likely to see a drag on their averages.

More generally, with services industries accounting for the bulk of employment growth and a fair amount of slack remaining in the labour market, earnings growth on average is likely to be soft for the next few years.