Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Friday, 26 June 2015

Pretty vacancies

Vacancies up 1.9 per cent in the May quarter

The ABS released its Job Vacancies data to May 2015.

Job vacancies news was mildly positive with a 7.1 per cent increase in vacancies over the past year to 155,700, implying moderate expected jobs growth in a number of services industries.

142,900 of the vacant positions were accounted for by the private sector in the May quarter.

Incidentally, the gaps in the survey are due to ABS budget cuts, not lazy charting, so you'll have to use your imagination...

As we shall see below one of the major drags on the national labour force figures is set to hail from declining resources employment.

State versus state

With Sydney presently laying claim to being the strongest employment market in Australia, New South Wales continues to report the highest number of job vacancies at 54,700.

Things appear to be picking up nicely with 38,000 vacancies Victoria, while Queensland recorded a slight uptick in the May 2015 quarter to 27,500.

On the other hand job vacancies in Western Australia have crashed from 37,600 in August 2012 to just 14,400 in May 2015 as the fading of the resources investment boom bites.

Vacancy numbers were also comparatively low elsewhere.

Growth industries & contracting sectors

There are now very few vacancies in the mining industry, pointing to further contraction in that sector.

Jobs growth in the immediate future looks very much set to be driven by services employment, particularly within health care and social and assistance, accommodation and food, and science and tech.

The year-on-year change in job vacancy numbers suggests that education and training is another sector on the move.

This is consistent with what we have seen in the record numbers of foreign student enrolment figures in 2015.

On the flip side, manufacturing still appears to be facing stiff headwinds, while resources employment evidently has some way further to contract as Australia shifts away from the mining construction and towards production.