Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Wednesday, 17 June 2015


Cranes, cranes...

There has been a strong supply response for a number of the Australian housing sub-markets in response to low interest rates and rising prices.

Indeed, rolling annual building approvals are now at their highest level on record, and the residential construction industry is now likely to be approaching its full capacity.

The above chart shows that this cycle has been very much been about an increase in attached dwelling approvals and construction, rather than detached housing.

Much more detail on this phenomenon can be found here.

Where might we see oversupply?

In Sydney, around the inner south we are already seeing new supply aplenty.

If you want to see the kind of thing I am talking about, check out a few of my photos here.

Brisbane too has a number of sectors of the market which are prone to overbuilding (I took some more photos here, for example).

Back in the harbour city there have also been than 7,000 approvals in Parramatta and Auburn combined in the year to April 2015, so that particular sector of the market is also likely to be flooded with new apartment buildings in due course.

CoreLogic-RP Data's excellent research also suggests that both Hornsby and the Hills District are likely to see more units constructed than the underlying demand for them.

Caveat emptor...