Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Monday, 1 June 2015

Auctions romping along

Auction clearances close to record highs

There has been the definitive sense from those operating in the industry that the latest interest cut has driven renewed interest in the property market, and not only from investors.

Certainly my analysis of the latest Housing Finance figures showed record levels of activity.

There does tend to be a lag effect in an illiquid asset class such as property, but last week's preliminary auction figures confirm that the market remains buoyant.

CoreLogic-RP Data's preliminary data showed a national auction clearance rate of 78.9 per cent, strengthening once again from 78.4 per cent last weekend.

As the 4 week average data shows below, this is as strong an auction market as we have seen in six years on a national basis.


The Melbourne market has confounded critics by rebounding once again, with a preliminary auction clearance rate of a very strong 78.3 per cent from 1,053 results.



Meanwhile the Sydney market is locked in a "frenzy", with a preliminary auction clearance rate of 86.5 per cent from 882 results.

There were a number of enormous results, in the inner west in particular.

As noted here previously, a huge number of buyers are squabbling over a dearth of stock on market.

The Sydney market is clearly heading significantly higher from this point, whatever the current month indices might show. 

It's my own contention from witnessing viewings, sales and auctions on the ground that prices are rising at least at a 15 per cent annualised pace in metropolitan Sydney.

As usual only a relatively small number of auctions took place outside the two most populous cities.

Heady times for Australia's property markets.

It will be interesting to follow this cycle through in order to discover what will eventually bring the Sydney boom to an end.

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An absolute rip-snorter of a fortnight ahead for news, commencing with Building Approvals figures today, which are expected to be at or close to record highs on a rolling annual basis.

This residential construction cycle is set to break all manner of records.

The Australian National Accounts will be released on Wednesday morning, which I expect to record a soft result both for the quarter and annually. 

The Q4 2014 figures showed that the Australian economy grew by a sub-trend 2.5 per cent in 2014, and I expect that the headline GDP figure will sink lower still through this calendar year.

We also have my favourite release International Trade, and Retail Trade this week, and more besides in the coming fortnight.

What a treat, hey - stay tuned!