Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Friday, 15 May 2015

Greater Sydney unemployment rate falls to 4.9 per cent

Sydney adds jobs

The Detailed Labour Force figures for April 2015 released yesterday revealed more good news for the Sydney economy, with an extra +20,500 jobs added, taking annual employment growth for the harbour city to +44,200, second only to Melbourne with +66,900 jobs added.

Over the past two years, while Sydney (+76,200) and Melbourne (+61,700) have added jobs on a net basis, regional New South Wales (-4,200) has shed positions.

Is it any wonder then, that Australians in the Premier State continue to crowd the capital city?

Cumulative employment in the two largest capitals has continued to outstrip by far that of the combined regional centres.

The gap between the regional and capital city unemployment rate in New South Wales has become a gulf.

The latest figures show that Greater Sydney's unemployment rate has declined to just 4.9 per cent.

On a smoothed rolling annual basis, the impact of the ongoing loss of mining jobs in certain New South Wales regions is abundantly clear.

Similarly, regional Queensland has seen a significant uplift in the number of employed since 2008, the total having all but doubled.

On the other hand, regional Victoria appears to be on the mend.

The other states

Greater Adelaide is not faring a great deal better, having seen a net 9,600 jobs lost over the last two years, driven by a punishing and enduring manufacturing recession.

State versus state - jobs growth and unemployment

Linking this all together, we can see that over the past two years Sydney and Melbourne account for half of the recorded employment growth, while the four largest capitals (i.e. including Brisbane and Perth) account for three quarters of it.

The comedy show that is the monthly employment rate series continues to amuse.

Regional Victoria is faring reasonably well, but both New South Wales and Queensland are suffering from elevated levels of regional unemployment. 

Greater Adelaide continues to face significant unemployment issues.

Smoothing the capital city unemployment rates on a rolling annual basis shows how Greater Perth has gone from a position of effective full employment in 2008 at around 3 per cent, to what is rapidly approaching double that level.

We might expect to see Darwin on a similar trajectory in due course, although Darwin's labour market is a curious one with a heavy emphasis on public sector roles as well as resources, and perhaps the Top End may continue to surprise.

Greater Sydney appears to be by far and away the best placed capital city economy based upon this data series.

A number of regions seem to be seriously struggling with elevated and rising unemployment rates, again driven by the end of the resources investment boom.

I'd run my regional unemployment rates chart, but it's Friday night and I doubt anyone is reading anyway!