Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Wednesday, 6 May 2015

Retail trade up 4.3 per cent over the year

Retail solid

The ABS released its Retail Trade figures for March 2015 showing retail turnover up by a robust 4.3 per cent over the past year in trend terms.


Zooming in the chart, retail turnover was up by 0.3 per cent in the month of March, marginally missing market expectations.


State versus state

Sydney and Melbourne have led the way in terms of retail trade over recent times on the back of the "wealth effect" typically associated with low interest rates and strong housing markets. 

However, today's figures suggested that the southern states are now gradually beginning to see turnover flourishing thanks to low interest rates.


South Australia and Tasmania have leapt towards  the fore in terms of annual retail turnover growth.


The housing market lift-off in Sydney and to some extent Melbourne has helped to fuel a surge in household goods retail turnover over the past year.

The big winners in March were department stores and clothing and footwear retailers.



March quarter

Almost unbelievably the first quarter of this year has already long since been and gone, so it's time to consider how household consumption might flow through the Q1 Australian National Accounts.

The answer appears likely to be "not too badly", the below chart recording quarterly retail turnover growth in volume terms.


Finally, for those interested in such matters, here are the retail trade chain volume measures data by state.


The wrap

Overall, an unremarkable release, but perhaps one which shows that consumers away from Sydney and Melbourne may just be beginning to enjoy low interest rates a little more.

Another cut in the cash rate yesterday to just 2 per cent should help some more still.