Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Huge fan of your work. Very impressive!' - Scott Pape, The Barefoot Investor, Australia's #1 bestseller.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years yet still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the finest young commentators' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts...most comprehensive analyst I follow in Oz' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

Wednesday, 6 May 2015

Retail trade up 4.3 per cent over the year

Retail solid

The ABS released its Retail Trade figures for March 2015 showing retail turnover up by a robust 4.3 per cent over the past year in trend terms.

Zooming in the chart, retail turnover was up by 0.3 per cent in the month of March, marginally missing market expectations.

State versus state

Sydney and Melbourne have led the way in terms of retail trade over recent times on the back of the "wealth effect" typically associated with low interest rates and strong housing markets. 

However, today's figures suggested that the southern states are now gradually beginning to see turnover flourishing thanks to low interest rates.

South Australia and Tasmania have leapt towards  the fore in terms of annual retail turnover growth.

The housing market lift-off in Sydney and to some extent Melbourne has helped to fuel a surge in household goods retail turnover over the past year.

The big winners in March were department stores and clothing and footwear retailers.

March quarter

Almost unbelievably the first quarter of this year has already long since been and gone, so it's time to consider how household consumption might flow through the Q1 Australian National Accounts.

The answer appears likely to be "not too badly", the below chart recording quarterly retail turnover growth in volume terms.

Finally, for those interested in such matters, here are the retail trade chain volume measures data by state.

The wrap

Overall, an unremarkable release, but perhaps one which shows that consumers away from Sydney and Melbourne may just be beginning to enjoy low interest rates a little more.

Another cut in the cash rate yesterday to just 2 per cent should help some more still.