Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Tuesday, 5 May 2015

Interest rates to fall today?

Commodity prices weaker again

The Reserve Bank released its Commodities Index for the month of April yesterday.

Declines continue on a monthly average basis with the index off by another 2.6 per cent in the month to be 20.5 per cent lower over the past year.


The driver was once again another horrible decline in bulk commodity prices.

Given that the preliminary estimates are presented on a monthly average basis, it is true that we may see a decent rebound in May.

Nevertheless the bulk commodities index is down from above 160.4 in June 2011 to just 64.1 in April 2015, which is a spectacular decline on any measure.


Unfortunately the decline in the Aussie dollar has not really helped all that much, and the Reserve Bank has stated that it would like to see it lower, probably at closer to 70 US cents.

This means that interest rates may need to fall further.

The Commodities Index in Australian dollar terms declined by 2.6 per cent in May and by 14.4 per cent over the past year.


Rates decision

One of the most interesting data releases, International Trade in Goods and Services, will be released later this morning.

The above figures suggest that we can expect to see a severe impact on iron ore and coal FOB values within the monthly merchandise exports series.

On the positive side, there has been a strong rebound in tourism as the dollar weakens.

With inflation remaining well in check markets expect to see the cash rate cut to a record low of 2 per cent later today.