Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Queensland - slower population growth?

Slower population growth for the Sunshine State

The latest round of ABS Demographic Statistics showed that population growth in aggregate in Queensland has slowed to an annual pace of +69,400 or 1.5 per cent.

The driver has clearly been a significant slowdown in net interstate migration.

However this figure disguises material variances between the various LGAs.

From 2011 to 2014 the ABS Regional Population Growth figures showed that population growth in the Brisbane LGA actually continued to increase to +56,908, up from +56,407 in the 3 year period from 2008 to 2011.

However, this strong growth in the Brisbane LGA has increasingly been offset at the state level by slowing growth across a range of regions.

Moreton Bay LGA, for example, has seen its 3 year population growth slow from a remarkably strong +32,552 to a still strong +27,086 as unemployment trends bite.

The pace of population growth has also slowed in the Gold Coast, Ipswich, Sunshine Coast and Cairns.

On the other hand, population growth increased in the period 2011 to 2014 in Logan and Gladstone.

The wrap

At the state level annual population growth has eased back to 1.5 per cent per annum in Queensland, although the slowing in net interstate migration to the Sunshine State now appears to have bottomed out.

The data shows that the slowing in population growth occurred in regional and outer suburban areas rather than in the Brisbane LGA.

Even then, in many cases, population growth rates remained strong, but simply less strong than had been the case previously through the mining boom.

It is still important to note that at the suburb level the strongest property price growth is often seen in specific suburbs with flat population growth.

New Farm has been a classic case in point with house prices rising very strongly due to an almost completely capped supply and massively increasing demand to live in a lifestyle suburb located so close to the Central Business District.