Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Queensland - slower population growth?

Slower population growth for the Sunshine State

The latest round of ABS Demographic Statistics showed that population growth in aggregate in Queensland has slowed to an annual pace of +69,400 or 1.5 per cent.

The driver has clearly been a significant slowdown in net interstate migration.

However this figure disguises material variances between the various LGAs.

From 2011 to 2014 the ABS Regional Population Growth figures showed that population growth in the Brisbane LGA actually continued to increase to +56,908, up from +56,407 in the 3 year period from 2008 to 2011.

However, this strong growth in the Brisbane LGA has increasingly been offset at the state level by slowing growth across a range of regions.

Moreton Bay LGA, for example, has seen its 3 year population growth slow from a remarkably strong +32,552 to a still strong +27,086 as unemployment trends bite.

The pace of population growth has also slowed in the Gold Coast, Ipswich, Sunshine Coast and Cairns.

On the other hand, population growth increased in the period 2011 to 2014 in Logan and Gladstone.

The wrap

At the state level annual population growth has eased back to 1.5 per cent per annum in Queensland, although the slowing in net interstate migration to the Sunshine State now appears to have bottomed out.

The data shows that the slowing in population growth occurred in regional and outer suburban areas rather than in the Brisbane LGA.

Even then, in many cases, population growth rates remained strong, but simply less strong than had been the case previously through the mining boom.

It is still important to note that at the suburb level the strongest property price growth is often seen in specific suburbs with flat population growth.

New Farm has been a classic case in point with house prices rising very strongly due to an almost completely capped supply and massively increasing demand to live in a lifestyle suburb located so close to the Central Business District.