Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Genworth delinquencies favourable

Genworth releases 1Q 2015 results

Monoline lenders mortgage insurer (LMI) Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia (ASX: GMA) released its 1Q 2015 earnings report before the open this morning, together with its associated investor presentation.

GMA has struggled to maintain market share seeing its gross written premiums off by 20 per cent from $159.7 million to $127.7 million since the prior comparative period (pcp) 1Q 2014.

Despite this material decline in revenues, relatively steady unemployment and benign inflation have helped to keep delinquency rates favourable for the post 2009 book years, allowing net profit after tax (NPAT) to rise substantially by 29 per cent, 

In truth, the increase in NPAT was almost entirely driven by a material pre-tax $28.3 million mark-to-market gain on GMA's investment portfolio, and underlying NPAT was stone dead flat (+0.0 per cent) despite the gross written premium dropping by a fifth from the pcp.

Delinquency rates favourable

More interestingly, deliquency developements - which are traditionally seasonally weak in Q1 - held up well.


Source: ASX: GMA

The portfolio delinquency rate has ticked up marginally to 0.36 per cent from 0.34 per cent in 1Q 2014, but more importantly post 2009 delinquency rates by book year have continued to perform very favourably relative to the preceding five book years.

Homeowners are clearly enjoying 40 year low borrowing rates, with fixed rate products for new borrowers in the past fortnight even surfacing with a incredibly appealing "3 handle".