Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Friday, 6 March 2015

The debate is over - Big Australia won ("Goodbye Porpoise Spit!")

From the compelling and ever-enlightening Bernard Salt of KPMG, the future of south-east Queensland is to be Porpoise Spit no more, rather the growing metropolis.

Via the Courier Mail:

"Four years ago I was involved in the Big Australia debate. I was in one corner and Dick Smith was in the other. 

I’m sorry Dick but the race has been run and Big Australia has won.

We continue to add close to 400,000 people every year compared to a long-term average of just 220,000.

At the 1954 Census there were 8 million Australians; there are now close to 24 million; by 2050 there will be 38 million.

Overseas migration has more or less doubled within a decade. And the reason is simple.

Baby boomers are now exiting the workforce and the prime taxpaying years. We need to backfill the skills and worker base.

But this means that our cities are growing faster and nowhere is that fact better illustrated than in Queensland.

Six of the 20 largest cities in Australia are based in Queensland: Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Townsville, Cairns and Toowoomba.

By 2050 there will be eight with the addition of Mackay and Bundaberg pushing out the slower growing Albury and Launceston. 

During the 21st century no other state will have as many large cities as Queensland.

Sure, more people will continue to live in Sydney and Melbourne than in Brisbane. But Queensland dominates with more cities in the nation’s Top 20.

If ever there was an Australian state and a people that should own the space of city planning and regional development it is Queensland. 

No need for such emphasis on regional development in the southern states because Southerners bunch up in their capitals.

And it’s not just the number of Queensland cities it’s their rate of growth. 

Over the 37 years to 2050 the population of Gold Coast-Tweed is projected to grow 102 per cent to 1.2 million.

By mid-century Brisbane will be a city of 4.2 million which is the same size as Melbourne now.

Townsville will rise by 93 per cent, Rockhampton by 79 per cent and Cairns by 55 per cent. Mackay is expected to jump 130 per cent to almost 200,000 by mid-century propelling it to 17th largest city in Australia.

Growth on this scale and in so many places means that Queensland will change.

I made the point in recent visioning work I completed for the city of the Gold Coast that the Australia people will not want a city of a million residents based on retirement and tourism.

The Gold Coast must diversify and especially into the knowledge economy. And I think what is true for the Gold Coast is also true for other Queensland cities.

Like it or not. Ready for it or not. Queensland must change, is changing, its engagement with the rest of the nation.

By mid-century there will be more than six million people living in southeast Queensland which is more than in Sydney-Newcastle-Wollongong today.

This critical mass of people and of economic power will muscle its way into the political and economic landscape of the Australian nation.

Sydney and Melbourne will lose their relative dominance: corporate jobs and high-end culture and inner-city edginess will be as much a part of Brisbane and dare I say, perhaps even parts of the Gold Coast, as they are now of this nation’s most powerful cities."