Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.
"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.
"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
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Friday, 13 March 2015
Sydney record high investor loans
Commercial finance rebounds
The ABS released its Lending Finance data for the month of January 2015.
This release has been somewhat out of "sync" with the Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregates data (which I analysed here) in recent months.
However, this was a much better month on the ABS survey with commercial finance rising by 13.7 percent from December on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The value of all loans rose by 8.3 percent in the month to $70.9 billion, which was the best result since July 2014.
The trend still looks a little peaky, though, so we would want to see this kind of result repeated consistently in order to suggest that low interest rates are definitively impacting lending finance positively (i.e. other than solely flowing into housing).
Record Sydney investor loans
Buried within the commercial finance data, we can ascertain where the massive seasonally adjusted $12.5 billion of investor loans in the month are set to be channelled.
In short the answer is Sydney with New South Wales investor loans on a rolling annual basis surging from $56.4 billion in December to a new record $57.2 billion.
This represents a huge increase of 35 percent year-on-year in rolling annual terms.
Property investor finance is also clearly trending up solidly in Melbourne and Brisbane.
On the other hand investor finance is now demonstrably going backwards in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
Meanwhile property investor lending has stalled in South Australia, suggesting that the AFG data sample was too small to indicate a meaningful trend.
But this release was once again all about Sydney.
Although January is a short month due to the long Christmas break - and these figures are not seasonally adjusted - investor activity in New South Wales has mushroomed by nigh on 150 percent since January 2012 and by more than 89 percent since January 2013.
Small wonder therefore, that forecasters are once again anticipating double digit dwelling price gains for Sydney in this calendar year.