Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Tuesday, 10 March 2015

Sydney leads YTD housing market gains

Sydney market leads the way as expected

10 weeks of the year gone already...where does the time go?

With the ABS electing to defer its problematic Overseas Arrivals & Departures release once again, instead I will take a quick rundown of just a few of the latest housing market trends.

CoreLogic's Weekly Market Summary shows that dwelling prices are rising as they generally have been since the middle of 2012.


However, the market is being driven disproportionately by a number of capital city sub-markets, and in particular the sheer strength of the Sydney property market.

Auction clearance rates in Sydney have risen to scorching levels, particularly on the lower north shore where clearance rates hit at well above 90 percent this week, but also across the harbour city in general.

This week's clearance rate of 83.3 percent represented a huge result.

The weekend auction clearance rate in Melbourne of a somewhat more leisurely 73.7 percent is still considered to be a very strong market result, but these measures are relative.


While the year-to-date Home Values Index should not be taken too literally - the extreme results in Melbourne and Perth, for example, are at least to some extent reflective of reversals of previous moves against the trend - they do show that the property market "gains" have really been made in Sydney.

Sydney's market is up 3.3 percent over the 2015 calendar year to date, and Brisbane has shown a moderate gain, but these have been to some extent offset by the declines on the indices for Adelaide and Perth.


The average time on market for properties in Sydney remains hellishly short, both for units and especially houses.


The CoreLogic RP Data Mortgage Index has an 88 percent correlation with the ABS Housing Finance series in seasonally adjusted terms and provides a more timely indicator to housing finance commitments through the detailed recording of "platform events".

Due to its wide coverage of mortgage platform events CoreLogic RP Data believes that its index provides the most holistic and reliable timely indicator available.

The mortgage index trend seems to be pointing towards a surge in mortgage market activity in 2015.


The Wrap

As expected Sydney's market is on track for another big year. 

Despite talk of a housing market boom, activity elsewhere has been far more muted to date, although there are signs that some markets are steadily responding to record low borrowing rates.

And that's about it. The Weekly Market Summary can be accessed here.

Assuming no further delayed releases, normal service will be resumed tomorrow where I will be analyse the latest Housing Finance data.

Last month's release revealed an enormous result as I analysed here, so it will be very interesting to see to what extent this was sustained through the month of January.