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CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Tuesday, 10 March 2015

Sydney leads YTD housing market gains

Sydney market leads the way as expected

10 weeks of the year gone already...where does the time go?

With the ABS electing to defer its problematic Overseas Arrivals & Departures release once again, instead I will take a quick rundown of just a few of the latest housing market trends.

CoreLogic's Weekly Market Summary shows that dwelling prices are rising as they generally have been since the middle of 2012.


However, the market is being driven disproportionately by a number of capital city sub-markets, and in particular the sheer strength of the Sydney property market.

Auction clearance rates in Sydney have risen to scorching levels, particularly on the lower north shore where clearance rates hit at well above 90 percent this week, but also across the harbour city in general.

This week's clearance rate of 83.3 percent represented a huge result.

The weekend auction clearance rate in Melbourne of a somewhat more leisurely 73.7 percent is still considered to be a very strong market result, but these measures are relative.


While the year-to-date Home Values Index should not be taken too literally - the extreme results in Melbourne and Perth, for example, are at least to some extent reflective of reversals of previous moves against the trend - they do show that the property market "gains" have really been made in Sydney.

Sydney's market is up 3.3 percent over the 2015 calendar year to date, and Brisbane has shown a moderate gain, but these have been to some extent offset by the declines on the indices for Adelaide and Perth.


The average time on market for properties in Sydney remains hellishly short, both for units and especially houses.


The CoreLogic RP Data Mortgage Index has an 88 percent correlation with the ABS Housing Finance series in seasonally adjusted terms and provides a more timely indicator to housing finance commitments through the detailed recording of "platform events".

Due to its wide coverage of mortgage platform events CoreLogic RP Data believes that its index provides the most holistic and reliable timely indicator available.

The mortgage index trend seems to be pointing towards a surge in mortgage market activity in 2015.


The Wrap

As expected Sydney's market is on track for another big year. 

Despite talk of a housing market boom, activity elsewhere has been far more muted to date, although there are signs that some markets are steadily responding to record low borrowing rates.

And that's about it. The Weekly Market Summary can be accessed here.

Assuming no further delayed releases, normal service will be resumed tomorrow where I will be analyse the latest Housing Finance data.

Last month's release revealed an enormous result as I analysed here, so it will be very interesting to see to what extent this was sustained through the month of January.