Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Monday, 2 March 2015

New home sales push higher in January

New home sales rose in January

New home sales increased again by +1.8 percent in January according to the Housing Industry Association (HIA).

This generally bodes well for the dwelling construction outlook through 2015.

Detached house sales in Queensland are displaying a modest upward trend but according to the HIA "are continuing a year-long downward trend in South Australia suggesting that in the short term at least new housing conditions in South Australia will remain the weakest of the five mainland states.”

During the three months to January 2015, sales increased by 15.9 per cent in Queensland but declined by 3.6 per cent in South Australia.

Mixed conditions for businesses too

That the two-speed nature of the economy which has seen the southern states lagging - at least, until recently in Tasmania's case - was underscored by today's ABS release on Counts of Australian Businesses.

The ABS recorded that there were 2,100,162 actively trading businesses in Australia in June 2014 with the number of actively trading businesses in Australia increasing by 1 percent over the financial year, and the business entry rate increasing nicely from 11.2 percent in 2012-13 to 13.7 percent in 2013-14.

This is promising and suggests that nascent businesses are indeed finding ways to fund their start-up phase.

In any case, the notion that nascent businesses are overwhelmingly funded by small business loans is a myth, as I looked at in a little more detail here.

Economic conditions patchy

However, the number of trading businesses did decline in South Australia and Tasmania, while the four year survival rate was weakest in the Australian Capital Territory, which all rather suggests that business conditions are at best patchy.

Tomorrow's interest rate decision hangs in the balance, with today's weak GDP partials (inventories in particular will be a drag on the Q4 GDP reading) and soft inflation indicators tilting the balance marginally in favour of another rate cut.

It will be a close call but whichever it is to be we can expect either to see a cut or an explicit easing bias re-introduced, with another cut in the first half of this year deemed to be all but a certainty.