The latest data from the Department of Employment forecasts jobs gains across construction and a range services based industries.
Generally the most recent 5 year "rest of state" forecasts for employment growth were relatively soft, although there were a handful of brighter spots including Gold Coast (+32,400), Sunshine Coast (+18,900) and Ipswich (+16,500).
Mining, manufacturing and motors
Even these employment figures seem mighty upbeat to me.
The other industry which is forecast to see continuing and marked declines is that of manufacturing,.
A significant percentage of manufacturing jobs to be cut relate to motor vehicle manufacturing, where almost half of existing jobs are projected to be lost. Noted the Department:
"The long-term decline of employment in Manufacturing is expected to continue, with employment in the industry projected to decline by 26,100 over the five years to November 2019.
This decline is expected to be primarily driven by a projected fall of 23,800 (or 47.5 percent) in Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Part Manufacturing, following the announced plant closures by Ford, Holden and Toyota."
Again the 5 year forecasts seem rather sanguine, projecting a further decline in manufacturing employment of 23,800 over 5 years, with the Department citing that the lower Aussie dollar could "offer some support to the rest of the industry over the period ahead".
Given that 25,300 manufacturing positions have already reportedly been lost in only the past 12 months with total manufacturing employment declining from 947,700 to 922,400, there appears to be significant potential downside to these forecasts, though I do acknowledge the inherent volatility in some ABS data series.
Adelaide's total manufacturing employment is projected to contract to around 50,700 by November 2018 or around 7.6 percent of the "all industries" employment, which is down from 55,300 or 8.8 percent as at November 2013.