Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Monday, 2 March 2015

Cities pushed to their limits

I've looked here many times previously at why property prices are heating up in inner ring Sydney.

A new book called "City Limits" by the Grattan Institute finds that the reason is due to demand being higher than supply.

Reports the SMH:

"If you think about the super-heating prices in parts of inner Sydney, that's people saying that they want to live there. 
The demand is there but because not many new homes are there, there's not supply to match it and prices are going through the roof."
The call for changes to the planning process comes from the book's findings, including that Sydney's jobs are increasingly concentrated where people cannot afford to live.
The report revealed that more than half of Sydney's population growth has been within 20 kilometres from the CBD, but more than half the jobs have been generated within 10 kilometres of the city centre.
It also showed there is only one job for every three western Sydney residents, and that the private sector job creation market in Sydney has been very sluggish indeed, with most of the jobs being made up by the public sector in areas such as nursing and social work. 
In contrast, there are jobs for eight out of every 10 residents who live within 10 kilometres of the city, according to the report.
"The really noteworthy thing for me is that there is a really big and growing divide between where people work and where they live," Mr Donegan said
"Job creation is concentrating in inner suburbs and in the city centre, but population growth is happening 20 kilometres or more from the CBD, so there's really no surprise that there's a large amount of traffic congestion between the two and that affects the whole city," he said.
One consequence of this, according to Donegan, is that there is less access to opportunities for people who live further out and, as a result, the price of commuting can be much greater as public transport is much cheaper than travelling by private vehicle.”
This is Sydney in a nutshell. Most new jobs are increasingly being created within the Central Business District or within a close distance of it and fewer people want to live further out.

Source: Grattan Institute

The book highlights how although nearly 60 percent of jobs are created with 10km of the CBDs, the percentage of jobs which can be reached within 60 minutes by public transport quickly evaporates making outer suburban living ever less desirable as traffic congestion increases.

Note that this is not only a Sydney problem.

Source: Grattan Institute

The book also notes that cities are now the "engines of Australia's economy", producing nearly 80 percent of national income.
Here's a free tip - if you're going to own real estate in Sydney, own properties near to existing or planned rail or light rail links to the city.
Nothing particularly surprising to those who follow such trends, but initial reviews of the book suggest that it paints a more alarming picture than one might expect.