Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Wednesday, 18 March 2015

BIS Schrapnel: Sydney, Brissie markets to take off

Guess who's back?

Market analysts and forecasters BIS Shrapnel are back with another headline-grabbing forecast.

They see the Sydney property market adding price growth of 20 percent over the next two years with prices "set to take off" in Brisbane by 14 percent over the same time horizon.

However, BIS see growth slowing dramatically in Melbourne, anemic growth of just 1 percent in Adelaide in the next year, and a slight fall in Perth prices. 

Unsurprisingly, it's mostly about Sydney and Brisbane, reports The Australian:

"The soaring Sydney property market will achieve growth of 20 per cent over two years to send the median house price well above $1 million, new research suggests.

Prices are also set to take off in Brisbane, but growth will be much more subdued in Melbourne and Adelaide, and prices will fall in Perth, according to forecasts from BIS Shrapnel.

The economic analysts said there are housing shortages in Sydney and southeast Queensland, and while housing construction activity has lifted, there is limited scope for a long run of growth in construction.

Sydney house prices have grown by almost 14 per cent in the year to February, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data, and BIS Shrapnel expects annual growth of 13 per cent for the 2014/15 financial year, which would take the median price just past $1 million.

A further seven per cent rise is forecast for 2015/16.

Brisbane prices are expected to post six per cent growth in the current financial year and eight per cent growth in 2015/16, taking the median price close to $600,000.

“Activity has already found a momentum of its own which is set to continue for another two years.”

Slow markets

However, BIS expects other markets to be slow.

Melbourne is expected to post much slower price growth of three per cent in 2014/15, and just two per cent in the following 12 months.

Adelaide’s market is also set to slow, with growth of one per cent in the current financial year and two per cent in 2015/16.

As the mining boom slows, Perth will experience a fall in prices, with BIS Shrapnel forecasting a one per cent drop this year and a two per cent fall in 2015/16."

The Wrap

We can quibble over the quantum of price gains or upside/downside risk, but the relativities and the thrust of which markets are likely to outperform I agree with, as outlined here previously.