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CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Friday, 20 March 2015

ASX to a 7 year high

Stevens remarks

Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens made some remarks today to the American Chamber of Commerce.

Some of the key points included that :

  • "In America, the unemployment rate peaked at 10 per cent in October 2009 and is now at 5½ per cent. The average rate in the new century to date (ie since 2000) is 6½ per cent.
  • In Australia the unemployment rate in October 2009 was about 5½ per cent. It fell, then gradually rose again to be 6¼ per cent now. The average in the new century to date is 5½ per cent.
  • In America, inflation is low and asset values have been rising. Interest rates are extremely low, but the central bank is talking about raising them.
  • In Australia, inflation is low and asset values have been rising. Interest rates are very low, and the central bank has talked about lowering them further."
Share markets absorbed the likelihood of further interest rate cuts and went on another run, while the implied cash rate futures yield curve is pricing in a cash rate of 1.75 percent as far out as August 2016.

Despite this the next rate cut looks more likely to take place in May rather than April for a couple of reasons, including the Board's awaiting of further inflation and housing market data.

The ASX 200 (XJO) added another 24.7 points to close at 5975.50, a fresh 7 year high.

We are now getting close to the psychological 6,000 barrier. 

There was a new all-time record high for Commonwealth Bank, up 71 cents or 0.5 percent to $96.32, valuing the behemoth at a market cap of well over $155,000 million.

Household wealth surging higher

Next week the ABS will release its latest Finance and Wealth data for December 2014. 

The Q3 2014 showed aggregate household wealth breaking new record highs, if average household is yet to recover its past glories.

With share markets at a 7 year high and dwelling prices rising, we can clearly expect to see new record highs in Q4 2014 and Q1 2015 too.