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Thursday, 5 February 2015

Where to buy (and not buy) property in Queensland?

Regional risks

On many occasions on this blog I have raised points of concern about rising rates of unemployment in Queensland.

The latest data from Fitch Ratings just released showed mortgage delinquency rates at their lowest level for more than seven years since 2007 at just 1.08 percent for loans 30 days past due - essentially delinquencies can fall no further than that in the present environment.

Despite this, my charts have shown there to be potential risk areas in Wide Bay, Logan-Beaudesert, Townsville, Cairns and Mackay.

I also highlighted risks in number of Queensland's mining regions. 

Indeed, the Fitch figures showed delinquencies in Kingston in Logan now to be running at 3.5 times the national average.

My charts do show, however, that inner Brisbane unemployment rates are very low and well below the national averages - and that's one of the reasons that I recommend focusing on those areas for those buying property in Queensland.

A caveat, though - although generic price growth may be very solid in inner Brisbane, it is less likely to be so through the cycle for generic apartments.

Asset selection will be crucial and investors need to source dwelling stock with an element of scarcity value.

Matusik on Queensland

One commentator who is always worth listening for real estate commentary is Matusik.

That's largely because Matusik has been around and commentating on the markets for longer than Matusik would probably care to mention.

In short, experience counts for quite a lot, and sometimes us "young 'uns" jump to fallacious conclusions. 

Here is Matusik's latest missive on "GO" and "NO" zones for Queensland (this is a free missive, but it's well worth subscribing for the paid service for a year).

Source: Matusik

Matusik's "NO" zones also included Logan City, Wide-Bay, Townsville and Cairns.

Price growth expected for inner Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

Which accords with what the chart packs maintained by this young 'un shows too. Be wary of areas where unemployment is elevated and rising.