Real-time thoughts & analysis of the markets, economy & more...
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyers & WargentAdvisory (subscription market analysis for institutional clients).
Check us out here
TO COME AND SEE ME SPEAK LIVE IN SYDNEY - see www.quadrant2.net
Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.
"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.
"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.
Friday, 26 December 2014
Merry Xmas from a the Old Dart (spending some time round at me Mum's this Xmas - ahh) where the bookies will not be paying out on a "white Christmas" event this year - in fact it's a positively glorious and sunny day in the environs of London, where sadly Boxing Day sales are all but underway already!
A sublime gift for a history geek like myself - more than 1,300 pages of Peter Ackroyd - which should make the 24+ hour return flight to Australia marginally more tolerable.
It's been a quite amazing year in many ways.
In Sydney we have seen house prices continue to boom by more than 17 percent over the last 12 months and apartment prices by around 14 percent.
It has not been such a good year if you invested in iron ore mining companies, though, and it was quite apt that prices finished the last trade at their lowest point in 5.5 years down at a painful US $66/tonne.
This will lead to the Western Australian government cutting or deferring iron ore royalties on a case by case basis in order to keep the state's junior miners afloat - a fair few juniors will not be breaking even at these prices.
In the meantime producers are scaling back production levels by millions of tonnes.
Expect that the Aussie dollar (now down to 81 cents) and interest rates may have further to fall in the first half of 2015.
On the plus side there was a huge upwards revision for the US economy this week, where growth is now reportedly tracking at a booming 5 percent pace on an annualised basis.
This has sent US stock valuations to yet another record high with the Dow Jones incredibly zooming past 18,000 for the first time in history.
More on this tomorrow.
We'll also publish our property price forecasts by capital city for 2015 later this week, where we expect another big year for Sydney where upwards momentum has not stopped, with Hobart and particularly Brisbane to be the other outperformers in the year ahead.
Most other cities we expect to be considerably softer in 2015.
In keeping with the south of England theme for this blog post, a UK #3 Christmas hit from 1980. Jona Lewie's protest song was kept from the number 1 slot by John Lennon who had been murdered earlier in that year.