In fact from our experience, while the market is not displaying the same signs of mania that we saw at the end of 2013, there is still plenty of momentum in the market.
SQM Research forecasts +8% to +12% capital growth for Sydney in 2015, and +11% to +15% if there is an interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2015, which there now seems more likely than not.
Why hasn't the market slowed?
The majority of other states are forecast to have a net oversupply of dwellings by that time, particularly in South Australia and the ACT (neither of which have strong population growth to absorb new supply).
However there may be a question mark surrounding one of the forecast inputs used by BIS Shrapnel.
Consequently we see net interstate migration from New South Wales fading to record lows.
Approvals in Greater Sydney have already meandered lower.