Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Thursday, 4 December 2014

NSW Retail Shooting the Lights Out

Solid Retail

After a massive result in September boosted by the release of the latest i-Gadget phone thing, it had been expected that Retail Trade would record a flat month in October.

However, in the event retail trade recorded a further 0.4 seasonally adjusted rise in October, which in the context of the previous month and other soft data around was a very good result.


Zooming in the chart shows the big jump in the previous month - driven largely by electronic retailing - being followed with a very solid result in October, which may bode well for some Christmas retail cheer.


Sydney Booming

Growth over the past quarter has been driven by the states and cities where house prices have increased, essentially Sydney and to a lesser extent Melbourne, known as the "wealth effect" (although of course retail therapy spending is generally a good way to rid oneself of said paper wealth).

Both New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria recorded strong 2 percent gains in the quarter, with yet another big result for NSW in the month of October.


If you track this blog back to 2012 when I was living on Pitt Street in Sydney's Central Business District, you'll find that bewildered I uploaded quite a few photos (and more than once!) expressing total disbelief that Australia could be in any way shunning retail as was being reported at that time.

The two charts above and below explain what was happening rather well, 

Retail trade was indeed flat in the southern states and the less populous states and territories, but was simultaneously taking off with a vengeance in Sydney.

Over the past year, retail trade has boomed in NSW increasing by a further 9.8 percent, with Victoria next up at 6 percent.

Interestingly South Australia and Tasmania, which have not experienced a "wealth effect" from rising house prices, have also picked up to 4.8 percent and 4 percent growth over the past year respectively.

The mining states on the other hand have moved into transition phase, and with net interstate migration already proving to be less favourable, retail trade figures are stagnating.


On a national level, retail trade has increased by a healthy 5.7 percent over the past year.

Food, Glorious Food! (and grog)

As for growth industries, despite the warnings that it might not be all that good for us and glitch volume readings in the National Accounts, eating food seems to remain a popular choice (food retail was up be a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent in the month to record 5.8 percent growth over the past year). 

The solid increase in "food retail" in the month was actually largely driven by stronger than expected liquor retailing ahead of the Xmas break.


Eating out retail softened in the month, but has still jumped by 7.1 percent over the past year. It was also a big month for retail footwear and other personal accessories.

Overall, a good set of numbers and a promising start to Q4.

Meanwhile the good times just keep on rolling in Sydney where central monetary policy settings appear to be all too easy for the thriving harbour city.