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Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property market & hedge fund advisory.
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Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
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Probably right too given that mortgage rates are still set to head lower rather than higher, but with an obvious caveat - future growth won't be spread evenly across suburbs and property types, so if you own or buy rubbish then you clearly won't see 20 percent growth, period.
Cash Rate Futures
Of late we've been benchmarking the implied cash rate futures yield curve against the equivalent readings for early October as a means of highlighting the downward shift in sentiment which has largely been brought about by tumbling commodity prices.
Only a 22 percent chance of a cut is priced in for February with 30 Day February 2014 contracts trading at 97.55.
May contracts on the other hand...
The market sees at least one interest rate cut in 2015, and possibly more.
SQM Research released its vacancy rates figures today for the month of November 2014.
Typically we might expect to see a seasonal Christmassy spike in vacancies - SQM's Louis Christopher noted that for a variety of reasons this tends to happen around this time of year.
Certainly there has been a big uplift in vacancies in Darwin and Perth, no doubt partly due to the unwinding of the mining construction boom.
The southern state capitals of Adelaide and Hobart now clearly have tight rental markets now following a dearth of construction or dwelling price gains.
As for Sydney's mythical oversupply, well there's still no sign of that either on a city-wide basis with the vacancy rate stuck at just 1.7 percent, although this headline figure will rise in 2015 as a surfeit of high-density stock is constructed in the inner south.
The "National" vacancy rate therefore ticked up to 2.2 percent.
SQM's rental index showed rents declining significantly in Canberra, Perth and Darwin. Sydney's house and apartment rents continue to rise strongly for yet another year, another clear indicator that there is no market oversupply. Elsewhere, rents have been relatively flat.