Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Saturday, 8 November 2014

US unemployment rate falls to 5.8 percent (NFPs so-so)

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Employment Situation data overnight, and it was all rather so-so, with total non-farm employment increasing by 214,000 in October.

The headline figure was somewhat less than had been hoped for, but was still essentially in line with the 220,000 per month average gains of the past 12 months.

Source: BLS 

Over the past year business services, healthcare and education have been the main winners in terms of employment growth, and hearteningly, short term jobless figures are back down to "normal" levels.

While four months on the bounce of year-on-year employment growth of 1.9 percent is the best run we have seen since before the financial crisis, the number of long term unemployed (27 weeks or more) was "little changed at 2.9 million" according to the BLS release.

Further, average hourly earnings hardly changed (just +$0.03 m/m to be +2 percent y/y) which was a clear disappointment.

US headline unemployment rate falls to 5.8 percent

It's been a long slow haul, but generally things in the US could be said to be moving in a positive direction. 

As recently as the July release there had been some spirited debate as to whether Australia may have been in the better comparative position in terms of our headline unemployment rate.

In truth, headline unemployment rates are rarely ideal indicators given the methodology used.

In any case the Australian Bureau of Statistics data has been all over the show in recent months, while at the state level, Aussie unemployment rates have been bordering on the farcical as variously mused by Paul Colgan, Greg McKenna & Greg Jericho.

However, while the US unemployment rate continued to edge lower through August, September and now October to now sit at 5.8 percent, Australia's respective revised data now sees our headline rate up at 6.2 percent. 

In other words, our respective paths now appear to have quietly crossed...

Having previously been clonked down towards 85 cents the Aussie dollar took a little heart and rebounded to around 86.3 cents, though technical analysts are cautiously looking for an "extension target" of 83.85 cents now that support has been taken out.

As promised, a look at the winners and losers by state from the latest Aussie Labour Force data to follow...