Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Wednesday, 5 November 2014

RBA Chart Pack for October

The Reserve Bank released its October Chart Pack today.

You're more than capable of clicking on links, I'm sure, but a handful of charts that are well worth a look here.

1 - Finance

First up, Housing Loan Approvals appear to be flattening out in aggregate. 

We looked at the Housing Finance data in detail here, and found that owner occupiers and investors are starting to look at Brisbane. 

Housing Loan Approvals graph

2 - Approvals

Secondly, Building Approvals appear to have passed their peak.

We looked at this data in detail at the state, city and regional level here, and found that the construction boom will lead to an oversupply of apartments in some suburbs.

Private Residential Building Approvals graph

3 - Household incomes

Existing mortgage holders with variable rate mortgages have seen loan repayments diving, and thus in aggregate household disposable incomes have jumped over the past 12 months.

We looked at this data in detail here, and found that while this may be true, to some extent this is a quirk of data sampling, and certainly those who rent where they live on a salaried income will feel no better off than a year ago.

Household Finances graph

4 - Dwelling prices

Lastly, dwelling prices are absolutely soaring in Sydney as rising household wealth creates new deposits and return-seeking investors push inner city prices ever higher.

We covered off the 2015 outlook in our monthly macro housing market update here

In short we see more of the same in Sydney through 2015, with some of the best prospects for the years ahead now having also shifted north of the border to Brisbane.

Given exceptionally low interest rates, the outlook is all looking rather subdued elsewhere...

Housing Prices graph

Weak services data today more or less confirmed that interest rates will not be be rising until 2016 at the earliest.

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sydney@allenwargent.com
brisbane@allenwargent.com