Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Tuesday, 25 November 2014

Outside Chance of More Easing?

The next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board Meeting is coming up on December 2, and unsurprisingly futures markets have all but discounted any chance of a pre-Xmas interest rate cut.

December 2014 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures contracts are trading at 97.505 implying that a cut in December is effectively a "moonshot" at about a 1 in 50 chance. 

No shocks there.

However, while most institutions are sticking with their forecasts for a hike some time late next year, a couple of notable forecasters have amended their 2014 forecasts to build in the expectation of a further cut in this cycle.

Futures markets haven't gone that far yet but September and October contracts have traded at settlements of 97.605, in turn implying yields of only 2.395.

On balance rate cuts are still considered to be done for this cycle, but the odds of another cut are considered greater than they were a couple of months ago.