The next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board Meeting is coming up on December 2, and unsurprisingly futures markets have all but discounted any chance of a pre-Xmas interest rate cut.
December 2014 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures contracts are trading at 97.505 implying that a cut in December is effectively a "moonshot" at about a 1 in 50 chance.
No shocks there.
However, while most institutions are sticking with their forecasts for a hike some time late next year, a couple of notable forecasters have amended their 2014 forecasts to build in the expectation of a further cut in this cycle.
Futures markets haven't gone that far yet but September and October contracts have traded at settlements of 97.605, in turn implying yields of only 2.395.
On balance rate cuts are still considered to be done for this cycle, but the odds of another cut are considered greater than they were a couple of months ago.