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Monday, 3 November 2014

Gold and silver hit 4 year lows

Quite a finish to October for the gold price, ditching more than $80/oz in only a matter of days.


Stock markets have been absolutely flying again this week.

In Japan the Nikkei 225 Index soared 4.8 percent higher as the BoJ announced surprise stimulus measures, a huge rebound during October now taking valuations to their highest point in 7 years.

Meanwhile in the US the Dow Jones has come roaring back close to a record high at 17,390.52, leaving a few market-calling pundits with egg all over their faces.

There has been the usual conjecture as to where gold goes to next with the price now down by 38 percent from its 2011 peak.

But instead of joining the guesswork - and by definition, most of it must be guesswork, since commentators and analysts have so often been wrong! - I thought I'd have some fun by charting some long run gold and silver prices.

Here's gold, which has recorded a compounding return of more than 5 percent per annum since 1991.


And here is the long run silver chart, which has recorded stronger growth of more than 6 percent over the same timeline.


As you can see from the long run charts, the prices of precious metals tend to be correlated to some extent.

Interestingly the ratio of the gold price to the silver price has now jumped to above 73 times ($1170/$16  = 73.1) a level we haven't seen in well over half a decade.

So this might either imply that the gold correction has further to run or that silver is now undervalued.

Over the short term what happens to the gold price is anybody's guess (and no doubt, anyone will guess) but over time it seems doubtful that the price will fall too much lower given that prices at US$1170/oz have fallen back considerably closer towards industry all-in sustaining costs.