Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.
"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.
"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.
Tuesday, 25 November 2014
Confidence Up - Consumption to Follow?
Weekly consumer confidence increased to 114.3 points on the ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence rating to be above the long run average level.
Source: Roy Morgan
As noted the other day, in a speech last week the Reserve Bank considers a recovery will run in the following order:
"The central bank runs its models using history as a guide, and the Board believes that a recovery will proceed from household expenditure to business investment to labour market conditions, in that order."
The Roy Morgan index implies that a pick-up in consumption will follow, so it will be interesting to see how the Christmas period track in terms of retail sentiment.
Our chart packs have shown that New South Wales already has been experiencing boom-like condition in retail over the past year, both in turnover and chain volume measures terms.
However, an economic slowdown in several other states has dulled the overall picture for Australia.