Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Saturday, 29 November 2014

Commodities smashed - AUD nudges "84 Handle"

Market action!

Some very interesting market action taking place in recent days and weeks.

The crude oil price has been smashed down by yet another 10 percent plus to yet another new four year low having lost more than a third of its market value since June as a glut of supply overwhelms the market, with corresponding impacts on certain share prices in Australia.

The sound of a few budget forecasts being gently torn up around the world...extraordinary.

Lower oil prices have a mixed effect on Australia's economy, but mainly a positive one - inflation should come down a bit, and it's great news for transporting businesses and companies with high fuel costs.

On the other hand there will be some budget impact to tax revenues since Australia is a net energy exporter, and energy stocks will clearly be impacted.

Santos (STO) shares dived by a massive 13 percent on Friday, with much more now to come next week.

On the other hand, cheaper fuel prices are of course welcome news for other businesses such as those in the aviation industry, with shares in Qantas (QAN), for example, leaping by 7 percent or 12.5 cents during the same trade to $1.92. 

Also as I write this the copper price is getting smoked, off by more than 3.8 percent to below $2.85 (wowsers), while silver is copping another absolute pasting, down by 7 percent.

Gold has fared somewhat better, declining by around 2.7 percent at the time of writing.

An interesting time for commodity prices, that's for sure!

Australia being a commodities exporting country is ultimately likely to see a corresponding weakening of its currency (depending of course on particularly our key commodities fare respectively) and the Aussie dollar has breached another important barrier, momentarily sneaking below 85 cents...

A lower dollar would be of help to exporters, and may also make Australian assets relatively more attractive to foreign investors.

With house price growth and sentiment appearing to be slowing in many markets, notably including Melbourne, futures markets are finally beginning to come around to the idea that another interest rate cut will be required in 2015.

At the close on Friday it was about an each way bet according to implied yields.