Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Saturday, 4 October 2014

US recovery continues apace

Strong jobs report

A considerably stronger than expected jobs report in the US, with the economy adding 248,000 jobs in September.

Importantly jobs gains for the previous month were also revised all the way up from 142,000 to 180,000, while the July figures were revised up dramatically too from 212,000 to 243,000.

The average monthly job gains over the past year are now looking significantly more favourable at 227,000 (this compares to 194,000 per month in 2013 and only 186,000 in 2013).

The data below shows the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and employment gains by month (click to expand);

Gains were broad based including in business services (+81,000), retail trade (+35,000), healthcare (+23,000) and construction (+16,000), and the  unemployment rate in the US has now fallen from double digit levels all the way down to just 5.9 percent.

Naturally all the usual points will be made about the low participation rate (now only 62.7 percent) and the distinct lack of wages growth, but in truth if job gains continue at this pace spare capacity will be eaten up sooner than expected and upwards pressure on wages may return.

Gold, AUD down

Interest rates in the US could now rise sooner than had seemed likely and markets responded accordingly.

The Dow Jones leapt back up by 209 points of 1.24 percent, while gold in US dollar terms declined further by more than 1.8 percent to US$1192/oz, which is the lowest spot we have seen in around four years.

The silver price is also in the doldrums at only $16.85.

With the US dollar strengthening, the Aussie dollar is now buying only 86.74 cents, which will be welcome news for the Reserve Bank.