Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Thursday, 9 October 2014

Unemployment rate at 6.1 percent in September

Weak jobs report...

After all the hype and expectation the ABS released its Labour Force data for September today which showed the unemployment rate at a seasonally adjusted 6.1 percent.

Total employment decreased on a seasonally adjusted basis by 29,700 to 11,592,000 (click charts to expand).

Straight away it becomes clear why the ABS had to re-set its seasonal adjustments

Had they not done so, today's reading would have more than completely reversed last month's smashing 121,000 gain to record an all-timers record of a 172,000 decrease in total employment.

The credibility of the survey has been a tad shredded, with the ABS commentary showing that no cause or explanation has been identified for the wild volatility, and the Bureau isn't even really sure what it will do about it going forward. 

You could drive yourself mad looking at the fine detail of the data, but the 5 year chart suggests that jobs growth remains relatively weak.

The long run unemployment rate, with the odd blip, is still trending steadily up.

One point of note for those interested in the property market is the shifting role of gender in the Australian workforce. 

Why is this  important? Because of the dramatic increase in the number of dual income households which has driven dwelling prices higher. 

As a percentage of the total employed in the labour force, female employees are now tracking at a shade above 46 percent, the highest level we have seen in Australia (up from 35.3 percent in 1978).

Market outlook

As for what today's data means for markets, shares have bounced off a 9 month low today, which the immediate outlook looking uncertain. 

What today's figures certainly suggest is that the idea that interest rates are heading higher any time soon remains fanciful.

With standard variable mortgage rates available from ever lower levels dwelling prices are set to continue rising until such time that the regulators feel the need to intervene.

The forthcoming housing and lending finance data will determine what brand of intervention is required (if any) and when, but APRA and the Reserve Bank will likely be hoping that investor lending cools of its own accord.