Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Friday, 4 April 2014

Where are Aussies spending their cash?

The retail trade data yesterday showed a very healthy trend, which should continue to propel the economy along nicely this year. The strength in the New South Wales economy is more than offsetting the weakness in states such as South Australia, the ACT and Tasmania.




Source: ABS

The Reserve Bank noted last week that Australians are killing it when it comes to their mortgages, on average being the equivalent of two full years ahead on their loan repayments, while both repayments and impaired loans remain very low thanks to low interest rates.

As expected, the effect of lower interest rates has started to flow through to retail figures. But where are Aussies spending their money, because it seems that it's not in department stores?


Source: ABS

One area I identified last month - cafes, restaurants and takeaways - where trade is absolutely booming:


Source: ABS

And now we are starting to see real strength elsewhere, such as household goods, with the seasonally adjusted estimates rising for hardware, building and garden supplies retailing (+3.3%), electrical and electronic goods retailing (+1.5%) and furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods retailing (+1.1%).


Source: ABS

And it also looks as though we're starting to see retail pick up strongly in other areas too, with pharmaceuticals, newspapers and books, cosmetics & toiletry goods.

Source: ABS

This is a fine example of monetary policy working as it should. Homeowners have enjoyed seeing loan repayments fall dramatically and are gradually spending more.