Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Saturday, 5 April 2014

US jobs recovery continues (+192,000)

I've always felt in life that whether things are moving quickly or slowly, if they are moving in the right direction...well, I'm generally happy.

That was true in my career, it was true when I played sport (I hated it once my golf started getting worse due to lack of available practice time!), it remains true in relation to my personal finances and investments...and so on.

In  most areas of life, steady and continuous growth is more desirable than booms and busts.

Non-farm payrolls

Following the financial crisis, the US economy shed nearly 9 million private jobs from December 2007 as the unemployment rate jumped to double digit levels.

You don't recover from a recession of that magnitude that quickly or easily, and there has been a great deal of stimulus poured into the US economy to aid to the recovery process.

It's been a long slow haul but last night's jobs figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics were another small step in the right direction, and an important one for global growth.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by another 192,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent.

Note how the labour market is steadily continuing to move in the right direction with jobs being added to the economy continuously over the past 24 months and the unemployment rate steadily declining to well below 7%.

Source: BLS

All of the net gains this month came from the private sector.

With previous months also revised up by 37,000 jobs, that all adds up to a tidy result.

Interestingly this means that all of the 8.8 million private jobs lost in the financial crisis have now been added back by the US economy. 

The public sector still has a little way to go.


Paradoxically, a recovery in the US jobs market could be bad news for short-term results in the share markets (since this increases the likelihood of a taper of the stimulus.

The Dow Jones got pounded downwards by more than 150 points - around 1% - overnight following a sell-off.

The immediate outlook for share markets seems rather unclear, following a tremendous surge over the past 5 years.