Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Thursday, 17 April 2014

UK mortgage lending +33% y/y - get set for rate hikes

The UK's mortgage lending data, in such a flippin' freezing country, is of course, highly seasonal.

But, the property market is not freezing: it is hot, and getting hotter.

Gross mortgage lending was up to £15.4 billion in March, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. This is 4% higher than February’s gross lending total and 33% higher than March last year (£11.6 billion).
Gross mortgage lending for the first quarter of this year was therefore an estimated £46.3 billion. This represents a 37% increase on the first quarter of 2013 (£33.8 billion).
In other words, the property market is absolutely flying.

Remember that this follows on from the employment market hitting a record high of 30.4 million.

And as I tried to blog the day, but got my blinkin' charts mixed up, the UK unemployment rate is below 7% for the first time in 5 years.

The UK economy is at last beginning to stand on its own two feet, wages are outpacing inflation which has receded to only 1.6%.

What does this all mean? Property markets are heading northwards sharply, but buyers needed to be ready and prepare for interest rate hikes - and it's sure been a long time between drinks!

As a benchmark, a Bank of England base rate of 2.00% is not out of the question by the end of 2015.