Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Thursday, 17 April 2014

UK mortgage lending +33% y/y - get set for rate hikes

The UK's mortgage lending data, in such a flippin' freezing country, is of course, highly seasonal.

But, the property market is not freezing: it is hot, and getting hotter.

Gross mortgage lending was up to £15.4 billion in March, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. This is 4% higher than February’s gross lending total and 33% higher than March last year (£11.6 billion).
Gross mortgage lending for the first quarter of this year was therefore an estimated £46.3 billion. This represents a 37% increase on the first quarter of 2013 (£33.8 billion).
In other words, the property market is absolutely flying.

Remember that this follows on from the employment market hitting a record high of 30.4 million.

And as I tried to blog the day, but got my blinkin' charts mixed up, the UK unemployment rate is below 7% for the first time in 5 years.

The UK economy is at last beginning to stand on its own two feet, wages are outpacing inflation which has receded to only 1.6%.

What does this all mean? Property markets are heading northwards sharply, but buyers needed to be ready and prepare for interest rate hikes - and it's sure been a long time between drinks!

As a benchmark, a Bank of England base rate of 2.00% is not out of the question by the end of 2015.