Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Monday, 14 April 2014

Sydney: dwelling approvals and population

Following on from the post declaring the sea change phenomenon dead, RP Data's Cameron Kusher has updated his enlightening charts of population growth versus dwelling approvals.

As explained at the time, people arguing that there would be a long drawn-out property market correction in Sydney in 2008 failed to take any account whatsoever of the fact that adequate housing supply had utterly dried up following the preceding property boom which ended in the first quarter of 2004.

Quite simply, a prolonged property correction was never feasible since an enormous population versus approvals gap opened up from 2004-2008.

Dwelling construction was never going to pick up again to the required levels until there was an equivalent upturn in dwelling prices, which we are seeing now.

The construction is desperately needed too, since Greater Sydney's population growth has accelerated to a near-record 81,000 in the year to June 2013.

Just noting here that even if 100% of the present annualised number of building approvals are converted into constructed dwellings - which they won't be - the present level of approvals at 30,000 is still not high enough to close the supply/demand gap.

When the average persons per dwelling (2.7 for Greater Sydney) and the role of obsolete stock are taken into account, wtill more approvals and much more construction is needed in Sydney.

Source: RP Data

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For this weekend's $11 movie at Broadway I watched The Grand Budapest Hotel starring...well, almost everyone actually. A genuine case of a cast of thousands.

The plot was all rather complicated for my simple Sunday brain but Ralph Fiennes was excellent and the film had a comfortable comic rhythm to it. 

7/10.